Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe4ad…795c sports 997 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,358 (+1%) realized +$4,559 · open −$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%672W / 380L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$505per market
Trades / day51.1pace
Fees−$4,293est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$8,665
finance 4% −$194
other 2% −$1,577
politics 1% −$1,362
world 1% −$2,314
tech 0% −$394
crypto 0% −$125
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -47.7% -52.7% 36% 34% -46.3%
≤30d 629 -9.2% -17.8% 62% 58% -12.0%
≤90d 1052 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 58% -10.3%
all 1052 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 58% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 58% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 45% -18.9%
15% -28.6% 32% -26.7%
20% -35.6% 21% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$402 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$899
Realized+$4,559
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses672 / 380
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$4,293
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1052 / 997
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$505
Trades / day51.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1052 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $300 $256 −$44 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $200 $229 +$29 (+15%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 32¢ $400 $200 −$200 (-50%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Up 62¢ 71¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 342 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Jun 17 $298 −$298 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Madrid Open: Anna Bondar vs Elina Svitolina Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5) Jun 17 $157 −$157 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Leolia Jeanjean vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-19.5) Jun 17 $444 −$444 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jun 17 $228 −$228 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Elena Rybakina vs. Leylah Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Kings vs. Hawks Jun 17 $0 −$4 -145193%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21? Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 16? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Blues vs. Utah Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Chloe Paquet vs Xinyu Wang Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 22? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 17 $497 −$497 -100%
Alcaraz vs. Virtanen: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-14.5) Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 13? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Fernandez Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Suns (-4.5) Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Jun 17 $734 −$733 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Rybakina vs. Muchova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on January 29? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-5.5) Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Rybakina vs. Fernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Alcaraz vs. Virtanen: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-17.5) Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 17 $298 −$298 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Muchova vs Gauff Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Suns (-3.5) Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 53m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 84¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 62¢ $102 2h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 90¢ $50 3h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 73¢ $50 3h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 74¢ $50 3h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Indiana Fever 77¢ $50 3h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 61¢ $51 3h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Indiana Fever 67¢ $50 3h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 78¢ $201 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 59¢ $203 19h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 48¢ $102 19h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 48¢ $102 19h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 48¢ $102 19h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 44¢ $51 20h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 44¢ $102 20h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 93¢ $50 24h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 84¢ $50 24h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 87¢ $30 24h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 83¢ $50 25h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 86¢ $100 25h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 85¢ $50 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $898.72 · official $898.72 (match) · 3500 history records