Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E4 0xe4ac…20b7 crypto 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$8
other 30% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -23.6% -30.9% 67% 67% -2.0%
≤30d 3 -23.6% -30.9% 67% 67% -2.0%
≤90d 3 -23.6% -30.9% 67% 67% -2.0%
all 3 -23.6% -30.9% 67% 67% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 67% -2.0%
10% -37.5% 0% -11.4%
15% -43.6% 0% -19.9%
20% -49.1% 0% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $66 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$5 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $75 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $66 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.28 · official $52.28 (match) · 12 history records