trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 30¢ | 40¢ | $18,084 | $23,950 | +$5,866 (+32%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 19¢ | 16¢ | $1,900 | $1,550 | −$350 (-18%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | $82 | $84 | +$3 (+3%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 28¢ | $22 | $18 | −$4 (-19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $2,019 | −$117 | -6% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Jun 09 | $4,997 | +$2,038 | +41% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Jun 03 | $281 | +$4 | +2% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 18 | $8,531 | +$640 | +8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Apr 27 | $19,453 | +$1,432 | +7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Apr 23 | $3,050 | +$1,300 | +43% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Apr 18 | $4,700 | +$1,098 | +23% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Mar 15 | $800 | +$64 | +8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +17.5% | +6.3% | 50% | 50% | +15.2% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +11.0% | +0.4% | 75% | 25% | +5.1% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +15.7% | +4.6% | 88% | 38% | +3.8% |
| all | 8 | +15.7% | +4.6% | 88% | 38% | +3.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +4.6% | 38% | +3.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -5.4% | 38% | -6.1% |
| 15% | -14.5% | 25% | -15.2% |
| 20% | -22.9% | 0% | -23.5% |