Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4ab…6649 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$1
other 24% −$6
politics 10% $0
sports 9% −$1
finance 3% +$1
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.8% -12.9% 27% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 24 -1.8% -11.1% 29% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 35 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 6% -9.5%
all 42 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 10% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage523d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $103 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $91 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$2 -24%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $123 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $135 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $48 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $122 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $105 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $53 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $32 −$5 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $128 −$2 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $47 +$6 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $139 +$3 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $47 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $40 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $30 +$1 +5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 14 $267 $0 +0%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Dec 06 $3 +$3 +92%
Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan Feb 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? Feb 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Curtis Samuel score a touchdown? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 25 $2 $0 +6%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $8 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $42 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $45 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $40 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $41 43h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $5 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $35 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $8 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $35 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $47 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $7 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $22 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.31 · official $40.31 (match) · 198 history records