Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4aa…5b46 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$358 (+24%) realized −$192 · open +$550
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$559
sports 21% −$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +57.6% +42.6% 47% 47% -30.0%
≤30d 15 +57.6% +42.6% 47% 47% -30.0%
≤90d 15 +57.6% +42.6% 47% 47% -30.0%
all 15 +57.6% +42.6% 47% 47% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.6% 47% -30.0%
10% ← realistic here +28.9% 33% -36.7%
15% +16.5% 33% -42.8%
20% +5.0% 27% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +135% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$63 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$719
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$550
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 3¢ 50¢ $15 $288 +$273 (+1817%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 7¢ 50¢ $34 $237 +$203 (+596%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 43¢ 50¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 14¢ 50¢ $10 $36 +$26 (+265%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 11¢ 50¢ $5 $23 +$18 (+355%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 15¢ 50¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+230%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$61 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$39 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $130 +$28 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $98 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$34 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$33 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$19 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$28 +530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$27 +514%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $308 −$304 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $42 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $719.00 · official $719.00 (match) · 44 history records