Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4a8…ac1a crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$77 (+5%) realized +$138 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$188
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -12.3% -20.7% 39% 39% -17.9%
≤30d 23 -12.3% -20.7% 39% 39% -17.9%
≤90d 23 -12.3% -20.7% 39% 39% -17.9%
all 23 -12.3% -20.7% 39% 39% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 39% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 39% -25.7%
15% -35.2% 35% -32.9%
20% -41.6% 35% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$49 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $79 $52 −$27 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 42¢ 20¢ $56 $26 −$30 (-54%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $123 −$73 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $87 +$71 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $69 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $105 −$98 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $76 +$150 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$35 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$53 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $82 +$70 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $68 +$51 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$19 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $126 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $46 +$80 +175%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $59 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $50 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $73 13m
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $85 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $87 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $69 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 4¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 6¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 5¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $82 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $68 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.67 · official $94.67 (match) · 60 history records