Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe4a7…bc03 crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+0%) realized +$101 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate92%66W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$741per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$85
sports 1% −$64
other 1% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 50% -40.4%
all 72 +1.5% -8.2% 92% 22% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 22% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 15% -18.0%
15% -25.0% 7% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$34 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses66 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage236d
Avg bet$741
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $24 −$24 -98%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 10 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $38 +$28 +73%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $20 +$11 +57%
Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5 Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 Mar 01 $47 +$13 +28%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $27 +$20 +72%
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5 Feb 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $39 +$16 +41%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5 Feb 14 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $30 +$11 +35%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 10 $46 +$8 +17%
1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5 Feb 08 $40 +$6 +15%
Burnley FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 08 $32 +$9 +28%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? Feb 03 $26 +$5 +20%
Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Jan 31 $78 +$9 +11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $50 +$28 +56%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 11AM ET Jan 25 $36 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 8PM ET Jan 25 $33 +$3 +9%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7PM ET Jan 21 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 5PM ET Jan 21 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8AM ET Jan 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8AM ET Jan 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 6AM ET Jan 18 $38 +$2 +4%
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 1PM ET Jan 17 $32 +$6 +19%
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 5PM ET Jan 16 $30 +$2 +6%
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 4AM ET Jan 16 $36 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - January 15, 7PM ET Jan 16 $36 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 7PM ET Jan 15 $33 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 5AM ET Jan 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 1PM ET Jan 13 $39 +$2 +4%
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 9AM ET Jan 13 $38 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 8PM ET Jan 13 $37 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 6PM ET Jan 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 7PM ET Jan 11 $34 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 6AM ET Jan 10 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 12PM ET Jan 10 $31 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 7AM ET Jan 09 $39 +$12 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 9AM ET Jan 08 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 4PM ET Jan 04 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 6PM ET Jan 03 $34 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 3AM ET Jan 02 $33 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 1PM ET Dec 30 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on December 17? Dec 18 $2,053 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on December 12? Dec 13 $1,052 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on December 6? Dec 06 $2,050 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 22? Nov 22 $2,060 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 21? Nov 21 $2,058 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 18d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $67 38d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 45d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 57¢ $38 45d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 63d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 63d
Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 106d
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 108d
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $47 108d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 109d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 109d
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $30 122d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 123d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $39 123d
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 123d
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 123d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? SELL Yes 97¢ $41 126d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 126d
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 127d
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $46 128d
1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 129d
1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $40 129d
Burnley FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $32 130d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 134d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? BUY Yes 83¢ $26 134d
Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $86 137d
Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $78 137d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 137d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.12 · official $49.12 (match) · 149 history records