Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4a7…982f other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$12
other 22% $0
politics 18% $0
finance 6% +$1
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.4% -8.2% 75% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 9 +5.7% -4.3% 56% 11% -9.6%
≤90d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 46% 8% -12.2%
all 38 -3.1% -12.3% 37% 5% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -11.0%
10% -20.7% 5% -19.5%
15% -28.4% 5% -27.3%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage376d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $33 +$1 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $17 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $1 +$1 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $71 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $37 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $34 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $43 −$11 -26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $41 +$1 +1%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 6? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 04 $18 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 30 $1 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $14 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $20 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $33 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $14 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $3 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $11 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $6 35h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $32 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $34 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $37 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $37 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $32 30d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $2 30d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $34 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records