Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4a6…1948 crypto 683 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (285 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,261 (+15%) realized +$6,261 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%421W / 262L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day285.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$985
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (285 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 529 +4.8% -5.2% 63% 60% -7.0%
≤30d 683 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 58% -7.4%
≤90d 683 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 58% -7.4%
all 683 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 58% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover285.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 58% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 41% -16.3%
15% -23.2% 27% -24.4%
20% -30.7% 19% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$34 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$6,261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses421 / 262
Open positions0
Markets (closed)683 / 683
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day285.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 683 Trades
no open positions (166 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$52 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$29 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$34 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$21 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$16 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$29 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$30 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$24 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $97 +$49 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $84 +$46 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $152 −$22 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $43 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $45 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $53 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $52 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $13 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.00 · official $65.00 (match) · 3500 history records