Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4a2…eca7 crypto 88 markets active 4d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$135 (-6%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%48W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$222
other 1% −$8
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +24.1% +12.3% 58% 47% -11.5%
≤30d 88 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 51% -18.4%
≤90d 88 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 51% -18.4%
all 88 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 51% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 51% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 39% -26.2%
15% -28.7% 26% -33.3%
20% -35.7% 16% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses48 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +84%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +125%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$11 -52%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$7 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$19 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $52 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $77 −$12 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$34 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$20 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$51 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$24 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $8 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records