Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4a2…4763 politics 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$631 (+3%) realized +$406 · open +$225
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4,253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days−$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$841
politics 25% −$733
other 9% +$16
economics 7% +$23
sports 4% +$20
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.8% -1.6% 75% 25% -5.7%
≤30d 7 -8.0% -16.8% 71% 14% -40.7%
≤90d 20 -7.7% -16.5% 75% 20% -9.4%
all 31 -9.6% -18.2% 74% 13% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 13% -9.9%
10% -26.1% 3% -18.5%
15% -33.2% 3% -26.4%
20% -39.8% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$512) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$112 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$4,253
Realized+$406
Unrealized+$225
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)31 / 44
History coverage117d
Avg bet$492
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $2,556 $2,882 +$325 (+13%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $425 $425 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 100¢ $277 $296 +$19 (+7%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 70¢ 89¢ $168 $213 +$45 (+27%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $193 $176 −$17 (-9%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 76¢ $177 $152 −$25 (-14%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 41¢ 20¢ $37 $18 −$19 (-52%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 24¢ $35 $17 −$18 (-52%)
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 35¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 37¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $320 +$13 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$4 +10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $198 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $512 +$40 +8%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $650 −$650 -100%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $141 +$24 +17%
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? May 01 $854 +$38 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 25 $783 +$20 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 21 $86 −$59 -69%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14? Apr 12 $1 $0 +2%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $411 +$11 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 10 $439 +$82 +19%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 06 $819 −$34 -4%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $3,285 +$480 +15%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $236 +$23 +10%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 21 $1,944 +$21 +1%
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municip Mar 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $1,423 +$23 +2%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 09 $231 +$7 +3%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 09 $494 +$17 +3%
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? Mar 05 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 04 $143 −$95 -66%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 04 $375 +$35 +9%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $42 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026? Mar 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more? Feb 27 $2 $0 +4%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 23 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2,919 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $932 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $320 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $33 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 38¢ $436 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $164 6d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 14d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $51 14d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $29 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $53 15d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 15d
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 83¢ $50 15d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 15d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $38 16d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 16d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 17d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 17d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 17d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 17d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 17d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $99 28d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $99 28d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $64 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,252.91 · official $4,252.91 (match) · 362 history records