Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe49f…b083 weather 767 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,117 (+3%) realized +$1,155 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate46%344W / 412L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$190
7 days+$258
14 days+$410
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$940
politics 1% −$21
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -24.0% -31.2% 30% 30% +10.6%
≤30d 134 -27.1% -34.1% 24% 23% -2.2%
≤90d 756 -10.8% -19.3% 46% 21% -7.3%
all 756 -10.8% -19.3% 46% 21% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 21% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 16% -16.2%
15% -34.1% 15% -24.3%
20% -40.6% 14% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$1,155
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses344 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)756 / 767
History coverage83d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 756 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $43 $132 +$90 (+211%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 82¢ 100¢ $92 $112 +$20 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $82 +$198 +240%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 −$43 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 −$80 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 −$37 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$10 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $71 +$137 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $77 −$59 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 −$17 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 −$42 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $74 +$116 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 +$15 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 −$22 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $149 −$5 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 −$39 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$66 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $216 +$33 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$17 -68%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$37 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$13 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$47 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $146 +$24 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $22 −$15 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $89 +$19 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $23 +$45 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $18 −$14 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 +$34 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 40m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $93 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.96 · official $315.96 (match) · 3253 history records