Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E4 0xe49f…79fb crypto 623 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,340 (-76%) realized −$8,340 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate33%205W / 417L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day72.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$703
sports 2% −$13
politics 0% −$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -22.2% -29.6% 0% 0% -20.9%
≤30d 271 -12.3% -20.6% 31% 17% -20.0%
≤90d 622 -5.5% -14.5% 33% 12% -15.8%
all 622 -5.5% -14.5% 33% 12% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 12% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 6% -23.9%
15% -30.1% 4% -31.2%
20% -37.0% 3% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$8,340
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses205 / 417
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)622 / 623
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day72.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 622 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner TDK 51¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $71 −$3 -5%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $17 −$4 -27%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $34 −$5 -15%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -64%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$2 -30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$3 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$4 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$3 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$1 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$2 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$3 -26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$2 -22%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$1 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$5 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$3 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$3 -31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +102%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$4 -41%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$3 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $16 +$10 +66%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.78 · official $5.78 (match) · 3500 history records