Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E4 0xe49e…dbc4 crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$109 (+4%) realized +$111 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$64
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$448
crypto 27% −$261
sports 10% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +26.8% +14.8% 52% 48% -5.5%
≤30d 27 +25.2% +13.3% 59% 56% -5.9%
≤90d 27 +25.2% +13.3% 59% 56% -5.9%
all 27 +25.2% +13.3% 59% 56% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 56% -5.9%
10% +2.5% 44% -14.9%
15% -7.4% 44% -23.2%
20% -16.5% 33% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$64 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$111
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage11d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $118 +$65 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$65 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$42 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$47 +179%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$41 +134%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 +$146 +712%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $190 +$18 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $127 +$63 +50%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $291 +$35 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $141 +$71 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 +$34 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $169 +$20 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $98 +$71 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $190 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $127 6d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $291 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $48 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $141 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $169 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $98 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.45 · official $178.45 (match) · 49 history records