Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E4 0xe49d…3b8f world 8 markets active 12h ago coverage 54d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,123 (+171%) realized +$1,165 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +224% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +193% what you keep after slip
Net edge+193%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$938
other 7% +$187
tech 6% −$26
sports 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+192.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +300.8% +262.6% 67% 67% +175.9%
≤30d 3 +300.8% +262.6% 67% 67% +175.9%
≤90d 4 +223.6% +192.8% 50% 50% +168.7%
all 4 +223.6% +192.8% 50% 50% +168.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +192.8% 50% +168.7%
10% +164.8% 50% +143.0%
15% +139.2% 50% +119.5%
20% +115.8% 50% +98.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +197% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +224% · $-wt +197% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$587 vs −$17 · ×34.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.9 per $1 lost it wins $34.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$1,165
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage54d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $8 −$8 (-50%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $6 −$17 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$198 +807%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $501 +$976 +195%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $22 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $222 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 16h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 16h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $18 16h
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 0¢ $22 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $1,477 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $501 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 38d
Rockets vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 32¢ $20 54d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 34¢ $22 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.31 · official $31.31 (match) · 13 history records