Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe49c…c901 crypto 1328 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-2%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate66%883W / 445L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$11
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$58
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -19.7% -27.4% 52% 52% -27.9%
≤30d 336 -9.1% -17.8% 49% 49% -15.9%
≤90d 1120 -6.8% -15.7% 62% 42% -14.2%
all 1328 -5.3% -14.3% 66% 41% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 41% -12.7%
10% -22.5% 27% -21.1%
15% -30.0% 23% -28.7%
20% -36.8% 22% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses883 / 445
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1328 / 1328
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1328 Trades
no open positions (296 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2787 history records