Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E4 0xe499…f953 sports 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$350 (+15%) realized +$359 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%91W / 62L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$225
14 days+$287
30 days+$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$314
other 28% +$35
crypto 1% −$4
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +15.8% +4.8% 60% 60% +13.2%
≤30d 113 +17.1% +6.0% 63% 61% +12.0%
≤90d 153 +10.9% +0.3% 59% 58% +7.5%
all 153 +10.9% +0.3% 59% 58% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 58% +7.5%
10% -9.3% 58% -2.8%
15% -18.0% 57% -12.2%
20% -26.1% 48% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized+$359
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses91 / 62
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions28
Markets (closed)153 / 182
History coverage40d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 66¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 68¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 44¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 69¢ 50¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$25 +61%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$8 -81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $24 +$14 +58%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$6 +63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$25 -83%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 +$15 +238%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$14 +137%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 +$8 +53%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $57 +$59 +103%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$33 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 +$9 +48%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $16 +$7 +42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +51%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $16 +$12 +72%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $41 +$42 +104%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$9 +86%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 +$8 +103%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 34m
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $10 44m
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 47m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 50m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 68¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL 98¢ $65 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $38 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $16 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $10 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 60¢ $40 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $10 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 6h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $24 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 7h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $6 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $9 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 95¢ $16 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $24 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $23 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $10 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.70 · official $395.70 · 355 history records