Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E4 0xe499…e9e4 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$64 (+29%) realized +$68 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$54
sports 40% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 +56.5% +41.6% 75% 75% -8.4%
≤90d 4 +56.5% +41.6% 75% 75% -8.4%
all 15 +63.0% +47.4% 73% 73% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.4% 73% +1.2%
10% +33.3% 73% -8.5%
15% +20.4% 67% -17.3%
20% +8.6% 60% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +87% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage241d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 70¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$18 +175%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 +$18 +68%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $19 +$16 +83%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Wizards vs. Pistons Nov 11 $5 +$5 +104%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 10 $2 +$3 +150%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Nov 10 $2 +$6 +317%
Thunder vs. Clippers Nov 05 $5 +$4 +85%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Nov 05 $2 +$2 +79%
Suns vs. Warriors Nov 05 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Nets Nov 04 $4 +$2 +49%
Magic vs. Wizards Nov 02 $2 +$1 +32%
Kings vs. Bucks Nov 02 $1 +$2 +203%
Celtics vs. 76ers Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $10 39h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $20 39h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 43h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 20d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 25d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 36¢ $10 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 30d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 43¢ $8 229d
Wizards vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 49¢ $5 230d
Celtics vs. Magic BUY Celtics 40¢ $2 231d
Pelicans vs. Mavericks BUY Pelicans 24¢ $2 235d
Suns vs. Warriors BUY Suns 9¢ $1 236d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 54¢ $5 236d
76ers vs. Nets BUY 76ers 67¢ $2 239d
76ers vs. Nets BUY 76ers 67¢ $2 239d
Mavericks vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 56¢ $2 239d
Magic vs. Wizards BUY Magic 76¢ $2 240d
Kings vs. Bucks BUY Kings 33¢ $1 240d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 54¢ $1 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.45 · official $76.45 (match) · 37 history records