Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe497…2b89 sports 1477 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,260 (-4%) realized −$1,260 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%582W / 895L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$341
7 days+$383
14 days+$357
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$20
other 49% −$1,487
world 0% −$31
politics 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -10.9% -19.4% 49% 43% +0.4%
≤30d 228 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 40% -4.8%
≤90d 1446 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 35% -14.2%
all 1477 -8.1% -16.9% 39% 35% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 35% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 31% -22.1%
15% -32.1% 27% -29.7%
20% -38.7% 23% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,260
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses582 / 895
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1477 / 1477
History coverage93d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1477 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $401 +$40 +10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $53 +$32 +61%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $25 +$16 +64%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 −$2 -10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $51 +$31 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$2 -22%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $303 +$120 +40%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $321 −$6 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $202 +$50 +25%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $25 −$17 -68%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$9 +84%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$17 -17%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $52 +$19 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$8 +32%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $201 +$24 +12%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$9 +89%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $201 +$37 +18%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $60 +$10 +16%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $201 +$37 +18%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +94%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $201 +$34 +17%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $6 +$2 +44%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$8 +78%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $73 +$6 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$3 -18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$11 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 91¢ $401 46m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 84¢ $85 52m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $53 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 80¢ $42 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 2h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $76 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $81 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 66¢ $51 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $51 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 31¢ $8 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $15 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 57¢ $10 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 94¢ $16 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $303 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $315 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $321 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $73 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $10 21h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $10 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $18 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $251 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3194 history records