Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

E4 0xe496…74df other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$28 (+8%) realized +$26 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%8W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Kalshi-fit5%portable

Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$36

7 days+$54

14 days+$24

30 days+$24

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-2.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+17.6%	+6.4%	55%	55%	+26.0%
≤30d	16	+7.3%	-2.9%	50%	50%	+1.4%
≤90d	16	+7.3%	-2.9%	50%	50%	+1.4%
all	16	+7.3%	-2.9%	50%	50%	+1.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.9%	50%	+1.4%
10%	-12.2%	50%	-8.3%
15%	-20.7%	50%	-17.2%
20%	-28.4%	50%	-25.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -21% → late +36% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.27 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$131

Realized+$26

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses8 / 8

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage12d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	70¢	72¢	$80	$82	+$2 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	52¢	$25	$25	+$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	76¢	82¢	$4	$4	+$0 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	+$26	+129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$35	+$20	+56%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	+$5	+52%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$30	+291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	+$6	+60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$11	+105%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 18	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$41	−$41	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	+$11	+109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$6	+111%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$25	2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$20	41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$15	46h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$20	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$10	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$3	5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$2	5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	76¢	$4	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$1	7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	70¢	$81	8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	6¢	$3	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$41	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$21	10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	82¢	$10	11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.02 · official $131.02 (match) · 35 history records