Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe493…ebbf
weather · 688 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$67 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$66 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$138
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses626 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)675 / 688
History coverage26d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day60.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 13 History 675 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$33
14 days+$55
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? No 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? No 96¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? No 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 96¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? No 94¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? No 89¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? No 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 1? No 92¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? No 85¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 20? No 92¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$19 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$63
sports 1% +$4
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY No 93¢ $1 15m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 79¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 23m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 100¢ $12 31m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $10 34m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 36m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $10 43m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 45m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $10 47m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 53m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 12¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $28 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 99¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 +2.3% -7.4% 93% 8% -8.3%
≤30d 675 +1.3% -8.4% 93% 7% -8.2%
≤90d 675 +1.3% -8.4% 93% 7% -8.2%
all 675 +1.3% -8.4% 93% 7% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 7% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 1% -17.0%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.86 · official $137.86 (match) · 1773 history records