Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E4 0xe492…d1f8 crypto 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (183 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5,078 (-1%) realized −$5,125 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%238W / 10L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,654per market
Trades / day183.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,573
7 days−$6,102
14 days−$9,915
30 days−$5,910
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5,963
other 1% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (183 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -1.6% -10.9% 90% 6% -11.9%
≤30d 248 +6.9% -3.3% 96% 2% -10.5%
≤90d 248 +6.9% -3.3% 96% 2% -10.5%
all 248 +6.9% -3.3% 96% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover183.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 2% -10.5%
10% -12.5% 2% -19.1%
15% ← realistic here -21.0% 2% -26.9%
20% -28.7% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$4,950) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$1,669 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$4,830
Realized−$5,125
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses238 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)248 / 252
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$2,654
Trades / day183.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,533 $1,594 +$60 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,500 $1,442 −$58 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1,200 $1,266 +$66 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $200 $232 +$32 (+16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $200 $155 −$45 (-23%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $284 +$116 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $1,990 −$1,990 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $1,810 +$190 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $2,654 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $791 −$791 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $5,721 +$55 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $4,952 +$48 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $5,765 +$285 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $118 +$220 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $5,881 +$59 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $1,231 +$59 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $3,956 −$983 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $5,660 +$340 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $5,941 +$59 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $4,011 +$41 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $5,950 −$5,950 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $225 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $2,545 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $5,115 +$52 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $5,950 +$60 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5,950 +$60 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $5,950 +$60 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $4,934 +$66 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $4,918 +$80 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $4,951 +$49 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $2,840 +$28 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $4,952 +$48 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $674 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $5,124 +$52 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $5,950 +$60 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5,950 +$60 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $5,950 +$60 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $10,892 +$118 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $4,828 +$172 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $4,951 +$49 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5,950 +$60 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $3,282 +$33 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2,951 +$30 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $2,910 +$142 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1,464 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $469 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $3,276 +$33 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $9,892 +$97 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1,268 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $9,901 +$99 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $284 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,980 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1,810 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,026 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,024 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $785 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3,532 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,564 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $119 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,242 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,830.27 · official $4,830.36 (match) · 3500 history records