Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe48d…4144 other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$25
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$20
other 26% −$26
sports 20% −$13
culture 8% −$8
crypto 7% −$8
economics 7% −$4
world 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.9% -10.3% 21% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -0.9% -10.4% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 114 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 130 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 112
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage99d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 92¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $65 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $137 −$2 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $272 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $29 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $107 +$1 +0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $61 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $47 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $288 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $48 −$3 -7%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $160 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $39 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $14 $0 -2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $98 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Jun 09 $21 −$3 -12%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 06 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $259 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $50 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $303 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 03 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 03 $46 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $108 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $55 57m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $65 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $18 8h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $47 8h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 9h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 13h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 14h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $51 14h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $52 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 27h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $56 27h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $56 32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $54 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $53 43h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 43h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $11 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $29 2d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $60 2d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $61 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.47 · official $54.47 (match) · 470 history records