Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe48b…fdc2 weather 687 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,287 (+15%) realized +$1,273 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%117W / 489L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day88.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,002now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$1,753
14 days−$952
30 days+$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$675
other 5% −$126
sports 3% +$92
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 -59.8% -63.6% 9% 8% -60.3%
≤30d 601 -16.4% -24.4% 19% 17% -4.8%
≤90d 606 -10.1% -18.6% 19% 18% -3.4%
all 606 -10.1% -18.6% 19% 18% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 18% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 17% -12.7%
15% -33.5% 16% -21.1%
20% -40.0% 15% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$7 · ×4.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,002
Realized+$1,273
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses117 / 489
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions78
Markets (closed)606 / 687
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day88.5
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 78 History 606 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 22? Yes 53¢ 98¢ $73 $134 +$62 (+84%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? Yes 26¢ 86¢ $31 $102 +$71 (+225%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 23? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $42 $52 +$10 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $34 $44 +$9 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? Yes 32¢ 68¢ $21 $44 +$23 (+111%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 23? Yes 27¢ 40¢ $30 $43 +$14 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? Yes 16¢ 44¢ $14 $38 +$25 (+178%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? Yes 10¢ 74¢ $5 $37 +$32 (+663%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 23? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $56 $35 −$21 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22? Yes 21¢ 64¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+204%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? Yes 21¢ 36¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23? Yes 66¢ 59¢ $26 $24 −$3 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 22? No 30¢ 28¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? Yes 29¢ 15¢ $42 $22 −$20 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $25 $21 −$5 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? No 6¢ 70¢ $2 $17 +$15 (+998%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23? No 29¢ 41¢ $12 $16 +$5 (+41%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 24? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 23? Yes 20¢ 17¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 22 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $59 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 24? Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$42 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? Jun 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $29 +$70 +241%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 21? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 20? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Jun 22 $15 +$48 +321%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $17 +$57 +333%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$12 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 +$8 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 23? Jun 21 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $0 +$1 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $71 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 22? Jun 20 $8 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 82¢ $9 9m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 6¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 21¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 40m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 24? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 24? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 95¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 22? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 24? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,002.38 · official $1,003.29 (match) · 3500 history records