Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E4 0xe48a…7099 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate96%24W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.7% -4.3% 96% 40% -5.4%
≤30d 25 +5.7% -4.3% 96% 40% -5.4%
≤90d 25 +5.7% -4.3% 96% 40% -5.4%
all 25 +5.7% -4.3% 96% 40% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 40% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 12% -14.5%
15% -21.8% 0% -22.7%
20% -29.5% 0% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$31 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses24 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $23 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $39 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $39 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $34 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $28 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records