Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E4 0xe488…f2c0 sports 515 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,940 (-5%) realized −$4,930 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%210W / 297L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days−$999
14 days−$1,318
30 days−$1,487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$2,251
sports 34% −$3,271
crypto 4% +$32
politics 3% +$328
finance 2% −$177
world 2% +$147
culture 1% −$340
tech 0% −$43
economics 0% −$110
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -8.6% -17.3% 34% 34% -13.6%
≤30d 100 -29.2% -35.9% 34% 32% -14.1%
≤90d 325 -20.6% -28.2% 40% 39% -15.9%
all 507 -17.7% -25.5% 41% 40% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 40% -13.8%
10% -32.6% 36% -22.0%
15% -39.2% 31% -29.6%
20% -45.1% 23% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$103 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized−$4,930
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses210 / 297
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions8
Markets (closed)507 / 515
History coverage588d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 507 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 57¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,019 +$851 +42%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,161 +$553 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,216 −$516 -42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,019 −$978 -48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$83 -41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$81 +199%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$229 +75%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 −$144 -71%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$92 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $406 +$203 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$20 -19%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $143 −$92 -65%
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,517 +$202 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $810 −$377 -47%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $153 +$59 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,011 +$305 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $711 +$662 +93%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,156 −$389 -18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $811 −$800 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $81 −$28 -34%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5,095 −$652 -13%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 11 $103 −$23 -22%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will João Pedro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $101 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $102 +$16 +15%
Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Birmingham: James Watt vs Harry Wendelken Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Emerson Jones Jun 01 $101 +$31 +30%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $302 −$12 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 59m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $39 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $152 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,870 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 5h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2,019 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,715 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $269 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $432 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $303 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $739 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $119 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $101 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $102 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 38h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2,019 38h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $534 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $60 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $95 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $486.21 · official $486.25 (match) · 998 history records