Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E4 0xe487…7fdb crypto 1132 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 143d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$192 (-2%) realized −$190 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate66%747W / 382L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$59
14 days−$42
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$232
sports 2% −$24
other 1% −$16
politics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 +3.8% -6.1% 61% 58% -16.7%
≤30d 848 -1.6% -10.9% 70% 47% -11.8%
≤90d 1029 -3.6% -12.8% 67% 41% -12.6%
all 1129 -3.2% -12.4% 66% 42% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 42% -12.4%
10% -20.8% 26% -20.8%
15% -28.5% 16% -28.4%
20% -35.5% 10% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$190
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses747 / 382
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1129 / 1132
History coverage143d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 65¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.22 · official $11.12 (match) · 3500 history records