Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe486…6977 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%11W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$8
finance 15% +$1
crypto 12% +$1
culture 12% +$1
world 10% +$1
politics 7% $0
economics 5% $0
other 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 0% -9.3%
all 12 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×149.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1649.43 per $1 lost it wins $1649.43
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$658
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses11 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage61d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $406 $406 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $252 $252 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $655 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $655 +$1 +0%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? Jun 16 $118 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $287 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 07 $253 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 07 $400 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $647 +$3 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $646 +$3 +0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between Apr 28 $644 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $406 1h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $252 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $655 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $655 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $287 12d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $118 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $287 14d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $250 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $400 29d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $253 29d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 100¢ $647 32d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $646 33d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? SELL No 81¢ $69 39d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o SELL Yes 80¢ $30 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? SELL No 81¢ $3 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o SELL Yes 80¢ $7 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o SELL Yes 80¢ $8 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o SELL Yes 80¢ $3 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o SELL Yes 80¢ $5 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o SELL Yes 80¢ $5 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o SELL Yes 80¢ $2 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o SELL Yes 80¢ $2 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o SELL Yes 80¢ $29 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o SELL Yes 80¢ $5 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o SELL Yes 80¢ $1 42d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? SELL No 81¢ $12 43d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? SELL No 81¢ $21 43d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o BUY Yes 79¢ $95 43d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? BUY No 81¢ $105 43d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 100¢ $644 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $658.05 · official $658.05 (match) · 40 history records