Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe482…2165 crypto 68 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (159 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+3%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate68%46W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day159.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (159 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +1.5% -8.1% 68% 53% -10.9%
≤30d 68 +1.5% -8.1% 68% 53% -10.9%
≤90d 68 +1.5% -8.1% 68% 53% -10.9%
all 68 +1.5% -8.1% 68% 53% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover159.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 53% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 41% -19.4%
15% -25.0% 28% -27.2%
20% -32.3% 13% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses46 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day159.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $73 −$15 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $120 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$18 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $92 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $62 +$29 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$10 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $56 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $44 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $24 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $74 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $58 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records