Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe47f…74a8 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$502 (+7%) realized +$502 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate69%41W / 18L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$2
other 27% $0
crypto 26% +$503
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 1 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 4 +0.7% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 59 +0.9% -8.7% 69% 2% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -2.9%
10% -17.4% 2% -12.2%
15% -25.4% 2% -20.7%
20% -32.7% 2% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×8.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.97 per $1 lost it wins $20.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$502
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses41 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage580d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Apr 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Mar 11 $32 $0 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on November 12? Dec 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 8? Nov 10 $1,028 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Nov 10 $522 +$522 +100%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Oct 09 $12 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Sep 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2500 before July 14? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 22 $1,066 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $6 +$1 +9%
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? Jan 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia? Jan 16 $1 $0 +6%
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal? Jan 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 11 $195 $0 -0%
Will Harris win Colorado by 8+ points? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia? Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandi Dec 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Harris win Maine by 5+ points? Dec 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? Nov 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Nov 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jill Stein get >1% of the popular vote? Nov 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 21 $188 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 32d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $30 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $15 104d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $15 104d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $9 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $2 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $3 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $2 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $3 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $1 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $2 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $2 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $3 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $2 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $1 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $1 120d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi BUY No 96¢ $30 162d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $30 182d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on November 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 225d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $270 228d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $252 228d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,028 228d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 247d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 247d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 247d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 99¢ $5 247d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $614 257d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $615 257d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $609 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.68 · official $30.68 (match) · 150 history records