Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E4 0xe47b…a899 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized −$1 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$18
world 15% +$5
crypto 15% +$1
sports 9% −$19
politics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +32.8% +20.1% 67% 67% -14.2%
≤30d 5 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 60% -13.2%
≤90d 5 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 60% -13.2%
all 5 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 60% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 60% -13.2%
10% -14.1% 60% -21.5%
15% -22.4% 40% -29.1%
20% -30.0% 40% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 13
History coverage23d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? No 87¢ 96¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 60¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+26%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 40¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 59¢ 57¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $25 +$15 +60%
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $5 +$7 +138%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 40¢ $26 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $25 15h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $25 16h
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $4 18h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $40 23h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 25h
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $36 37h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $50 41h
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 42h
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 43h
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $10 43h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 47h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY No 59¢ $25 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 16d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.17 · official $283.17 (match) · 27 history records