Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E4 0xe478…17b1 world 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
other 25% −$4
sports 24% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 3 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 3 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 0% -8.4%
all 3 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 0% -8.4%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$3 · ×5.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage11d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $322 $326 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 22 $320 −$2 -1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) Jun 11 $309 +$17 +6%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? Jun 11 $313 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $322 1h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $318 1h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $320 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) SELL KOLESIE 57¢ $3 11d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) BUY KOLESIE 94¢ $309 11d
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? SELL No 93¢ $309 11d
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? BUY No 94¢ $313 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.40 · official $326.40 (match) · 8 history records