Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe478…d42c
crypto · 102 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$94 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$93 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$77
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses50 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage227d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days+$83
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Kansas City Royals 35¢ 100¢ $21 $61 +$40 (+186%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 33¢ 32¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 47¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Baltimore Orioles 43¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $19 −$19 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $22 +$40 +182%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $19 +$16 +86%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jun 01 $31 +$24 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 01 $39 +$21 +55%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $20 −$19 -98%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks May 05 $37 +$17 +46%
Stars vs. Wild May 05 $28 +$31 +109%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 05 $48 +$22 +47%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 29 $116 −$116 -100%
Will LNG Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Mar 24 $2 +$2 +100%
Bucks vs. Jazz Mar 23 $7 +$13 +194%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 23 $494 +$6 +1%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Mar 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 20? Mar 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 9? Mar 23 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local Mar 15 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 07 $3 $0 -11%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 06 $2 $0 +0%
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? Jan 31 $4 $0 -1%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m Jan 22 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Jan 14 $246 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? Jan 12 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $250 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 09 $252 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $248 +$1 +0%
Will Michael van Gerwen win the PDC World Darts Championship? Dec 31 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Dec 31 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $149 $0 +0%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 26 $242 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $79 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by March 31? Dec 23 $156 +$4 +2%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 21 $99 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Dec 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 16 $94 +$1 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Dec 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 08 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $147 +$3 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $148 +$1 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 28 $129 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 36% −$121
economics 16% +$7
sports 14% +$39
other 12% +$11
politics 10% −$2
world 7% $0
tech 3% −$26
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 33¢ $17 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $19 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Kansas City Royals 35¢ $22 12d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $20 26d
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $19 28d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Hurricanes 64¢ $39 35d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 55¢ $31 38d
Stars vs. Wild BUY Stars 47¢ $28 52d
Grizzlies vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 68¢ $37 69d
Rockets vs. Pelicans BUY Rockets 68¢ $48 76d
Will LNG Esports win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 81d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 54¢ $8 82d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 54¢ $8 82d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 54¢ $100 82d
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Duke Blue Devils 99¢ $494 86d
Bucks vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 34¢ $7 86d
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local SELL Yes 0¢ $2 90d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 1¢ $2 98d
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 99d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 1¢ $3 131d
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 133d
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 133d
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 133d
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 133d
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 133d
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 133d
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 133d
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 133d
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 133d
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 +34.3% +21.5% 67% 67% +29.2%
≤90d 17 +11.9% +1.3% 59% 53% -20.0%
all 101 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 9% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 9% -10.4%
10% -16.9% 9% -19.0%
15% -25.0% 9% -26.8%
20% -32.3% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.25 · official $77.25 (match) · 274 history records