trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +5.3% | -4.8% | 100% | 0% | -4.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +4.1% | -5.8% | 67% | 17% | -7.9% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +5.3% | -4.7% | 75% | 17% | -6.0% |
| all | 28 | +25.1% | +13.1% | 75% | 11% | -5.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +13.1% | 11% | -5.3% |
| 10% | +2.3% | 7% | -14.3% |
| 15% | -7.6% | 4% | -22.6% |
| 20% | -16.6% | 4% | -30.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 56¢ | $44 | $48 | +$4 (+9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 22 | $16 | +$1 | +5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 27 | $67 | −$3 | -4% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $38 | +$5 | +14% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 26 | $48 | $0 | +1% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 26 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 25 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 24 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 23 | $30 | +$9 | +29% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 23 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 21 | $15 | +$1 | +7% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 20 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 20 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 19 | $2 | +$12 | +728% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jun 28 | $33 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Rumble buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? | May 25 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? | May 24 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will another candidate win? | May 24 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13? | May 13 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? | May 13 | $5 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | May 12 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? | May 11 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | May 08 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Mar 29 | $11 | $0 | -1% |