Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E4 0xe477…d25e world 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$62 (+13%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$1
politics 8% +$60
other 4% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.2%
all 22 +46.0% +32.1% 68% 9% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.1% 9% +7.6%
10% +19.4% 5% -2.7%
15% +7.9% 5% -12.1%
20% -2.7% 5% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.04 per $1 lost it wins $18.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage480d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 29 $6 +$63 +1090%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? Mar 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8? Mar 20 $11 $0 +4%
South Florida vs. Temple Feb 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 26 $11 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $48 56m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $20 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $24 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $44 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $23 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $23 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $23 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $31 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.71 · official $47.71 (match) · 70 history records