Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe474…0200 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$132 (-12%) realized −$127 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$90
14 days−$132
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$14
other 30% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 50% -27.0%
≤30d 15 -28.1% -34.9% 40% 40% -32.6%
≤90d 15 -28.1% -34.9% 40% 40% -32.6%
all 15 -28.1% -34.9% 40% 40% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 40% -32.6%
10% -41.1% 33% -39.1%
15% -46.8% 33% -44.9%
20% -52.0% 27% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$34 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 23
History coverage10d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Under 66¢ 62¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $51 +$84 +165%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $101 +$58 +57%
ITF Tanger: Reda Bennani vs Sean Cuenin Jun 26 $50 +$20 +40%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Ryo Tabata Jun 26 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +120%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 51m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY 43¢ $50 55m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $51 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $135 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys AND Lexus Eastbo BUY 3¢ $10 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 37¢ $51 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys BUY Petra Marcinko 16¢ $51 12h
ITF Tanger: Reda Bennani vs Sean Cuenin BUY Sean Cuenin 71¢ $50 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 63¢ $101 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 61¢ $101 12h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic BUY Andrej Nedic 44¢ $5 13h
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Ryo Tabata SELL Marc Majdandzic 100¢ $6 13h
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Ryo Tabata BUY Marc Majdandzic 84¢ $5 14h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY 25¢ $125 23h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Japan vs. Swede BUY 0¢ $6 23h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 13¢ $100 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 2¢ $4 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $2 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 21¢ $26 8d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $10 10d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $6 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.90 · official $344.06 · 31 history records