Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe474…018d other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-9%) realized −$26 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$28
tech 27% +$2
sports 11% −$17
crypto 9% +$2
world 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% +14.7%
≤30d 9 -24.7% -31.8% 22% 22% -14.8%
≤90d 18 -4.7% -13.7% 39% 39% -14.0%
all 65 -29.2% -35.9% 34% 34% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 34% -20.4%
10% -42.1% 31% -28.0%
15% -47.7% 29% -35.0%
20% -52.8% 22% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage201d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Jun 07 $98 −$12 -12%
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 -11%
Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 30 $52 −$1 -3%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 26 $35 +$5 +14%
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the le May 26 $3 −$1 -43%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Heat Apr 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $1 +$3 +317%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 21 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 21 $4 +$2 +41%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 05 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 05 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 05 $2 +$6 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 04 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 04 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 04 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 26 $2 +$2 +92%
Rockets vs. Lakers Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Dec 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Dec 23 $2 $0 +12%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 22 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $4 +$2 +60%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this we Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 16 $1 +$2 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the SELL Yes 58¢ $86 9d
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the BUY Yes 65¢ $13 13d
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the BUY Yes 65¢ $13 13d
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the BUY Yes 65¢ $13 13d
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the BUY Yes 65¢ $13 13d
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the BUY Yes 65¢ $13 13d
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the BUY Yes 65¢ $13 13d
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the BUY Yes 65¢ $5 13d
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the BUY Yes 65¢ $15 13d
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 14d
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 14d
Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 3¢ $50 17d
Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 2¢ $52 17d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 10¢ $40 21d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 8¢ $35 21d
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the le SELL Yes 3¢ $2 21d
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the le BUY Yes 5¢ $3 22d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 26d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 26d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 26d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 26d
Warriors vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 48¢ $2 85d
Spurs vs. Heat BUY Spurs 60¢ $2 85d
Lakers vs. Pistons BUY Lakers 56¢ $2 86d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 86d
Lakers vs. Magic BUY Lakers 61¢ $2 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.16 · official $36.16 (match) · 156 history records