Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe472…f580 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-8%) realized −$16 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$18
other 22% −$3
sports 12% −$6
world 6% +$6
weather 4% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +44.2% +30.5% 60% 60% +38.6%
≤30d 5 +44.2% +30.5% 60% 60% +38.6%
≤90d 5 +44.2% +30.5% 60% 60% +38.6%
all 43 +1.2% -8.4% 51% 47% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 47% -18.4%
10% -17.2% 42% -26.2%
15% -25.2% 35% -33.3%
20% -32.5% 26% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)43 / 56
History coverage576d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 6¢ 12¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+84%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 6¢ 6¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 5¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+80%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 9¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 3¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$9 +72%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 16 $1 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 16 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12PM ET Jan 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 16 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 16 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 16 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6PM ET Jan 16 $4 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5PM ET Jan 15 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 15 $1 +$1 +141%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 15 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 15? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 15 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 15 $2 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jan 15 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7PM ET Jan 15 $1 $0 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 14 $3 −$1 -18%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 14? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 14? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 14 $2 +$5 +238%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $2 +$2 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Villanova Wildcats vs. Providence Friars Jan 14 $10 −$8 -84%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 7PM ET Jan 14 $1 −$1 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 13 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 13 $1 +$2 +156%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Dec 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Dec 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? Dec 01 $8 −$5 -63%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 01 $6 +$2 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $14 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $13 1h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 20¢ $3 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 16¢ $3 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $11 6d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 6¢ $7 6d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 6¢ $7 6d
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 5¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 5¢ $5 6d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 4¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 4¢ $4 6d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $4 6d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $3 6d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $9 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.59 · official $70.59 (match) · 133 history records