Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe472…e7eb
world · 147 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$31,748 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$108,669 · open +$8,893
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$124,530
Realized+$108,669
Unrealized+$8,893
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses98 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions38
Markets (closed)115 / 147
History coverage56d
Avg bet$5,192
Trades / day58.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 38 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days+$5,945
14 days+$15,217
30 days+$22,051
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 81¢ $28,770 $33,298 +$4,529 (+16%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $23,388 $24,202 +$814 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $22,119 $23,778 +$1,659 (+7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 71¢ 81¢ $12,220 $13,913 +$1,693 (+14%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $8,823 $9,763 +$940 (+11%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,184 $4,185 +$1 (+0%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 84¢ 92¢ $3,401 $3,761 +$360 (+11%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,901 $2,958 +$57 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,479 $1,550 +$71 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $963 $988 +$26 (+3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 74¢ 34¢ $1,917 $899 −$1,018 (-53%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $842 $850 +$8 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 76¢ $729 $688 −$40 (-6%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $475 $486 +$11 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $425 $428 +$3 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $396 $385 −$11 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $423 $379 −$44 (-10%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $168 $225 +$57 (+34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $228 $222 −$6 (-3%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $178 $198 +$20 (+11%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $195 $198 +$3 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 92¢ 96¢ $184 $191 +$7 (+4%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $184 +$0 (+0%)
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? No 84¢ 93¢ $147 $163 +$16 (+11%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $117 $121 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $4,300 +$100 +2%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Jun 13 $547 +$41 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $4,247 +$56 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$10 -21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $3,972 +$28 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $5,680 +$20 +0%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $2,097 +$6,261 +298%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $4,337 +$37 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $1,477 −$1,258 -85%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 10 $920 +$10 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $120 +$18 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 08 $2,646 +$146 +6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $4,079 +$94 +2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $106 +$239 +225%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $9,212 +$175 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $5,123 +$130 +2%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1,234 +$34 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $720 +$784 +109%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $3,865 +$85 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $18,426 +$2,803 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,264 +$536 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2,068 +$232 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $35,258 +$2,359 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $11,332 +$553 +5%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,598 +$228 +9%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $435 +$17 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $384 +$16 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $9,394 +$1,565 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $91 +$58 +64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $3,010 +$667 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $3,973 +$187 +5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $1,240 −$318 -26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $943 −$943 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $372 −$372 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $387 −$387 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $588 −$588 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $497 −$497 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $102 +$92 +90%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 25 $786 +$32 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $6,662 +$169 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $7,828 +$1,452 +18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $860 +$140 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $3,130 +$80 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $22,247 +$5,430 +24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 22 $781 +$4 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $4,236 +$759 +18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 21 $612 +$18 +3%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? May 20 $772 +$20 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 83% +$104,039
economics 8% +$11,321
other 6% +$2,814
tech 2% +$83
politics 1% −$780
finance 0% −$8
crypto 0% +$58
sports 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2,651 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $192 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $736 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $32 6h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $370 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $391 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2,994 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $19 9h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $21 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,494 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $13 10h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $788 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $154 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $664 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $672 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,801 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $234 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $139 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $32 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $47 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $94 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +19.2% +7.9% 83% 17% +1.5%
≤30d 58 +7.3% -2.9% 84% 28% -1.4%
≤90d 115 +25.3% +13.4% 85% 23% +10.9%
all 115 +25.3% +13.4% 85% 23% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.4% 23% +10.9%
10% +2.5% 12% +0.3%
15% ← realistic here -7.4% 11% -9.4%
20% -16.5% 10% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124,530.30 · official $124,748.48 (match) · 3500 history records