Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe472…3a11 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate41%35W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$3
other 18% −$1
sports 18% −$3
politics 17% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.2% -14.2% 43% 14% -11.7%
≤30d 21 +174.4% +148.3% 43% 14% -10.3%
≤90d 70 +52.3% +37.8% 34% 7% -9.7%
all 85 +45.3% +31.5% 41% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.5% 12% -9.8%
10% +18.9% 9% -18.4%
15% +7.4% 8% -26.3%
20% -3.1% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +86% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses35 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage540d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $35 −$4 -11%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 −$1 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $1 $0 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $71 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $9 +$1 +8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $120 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $78 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $35 +$4 +10%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $7 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $14 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $82 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $61 −$5 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $25 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $17 +$2 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $34 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $8 −$1 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $37 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $45 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $9 +$2 +24%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $3 $0 -3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $211 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $39 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $21 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $11 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $14 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $19 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $8 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.85 (match) · 351 history records