Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe46e…1567 other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,951 (-2%) realized −$1,951 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%9W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,319per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$9
14 days−$21
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$25
politics 31% −$44
sports 7% −$1,927
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$14
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -1.8% -11.1% 3% 0% -11.4%
all 91 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 7% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 7% -11.0%
10% -18.6% 7% -19.5%
15% -26.5% 4% -27.3%
20% -33.7% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,782) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$30 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$600
Realized−$1,951
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses9 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage109d
Avg bet$1,319
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $599 $600 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $2,130 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,325 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,049 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,948 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,911 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,944 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,001 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,949 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 04 $398 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 04 $297 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,520 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $374 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,063 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,016 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,102 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,121 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $3,285 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $2,792 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $3,476 −$4 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $2,058 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $870 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,495 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,314 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,782 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2,366 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,693 −$2 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $850 −$1 -0%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 06 $1,877 −$1,877 -100%
Will Bubba Watson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $1,600 −$2 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $1,559 −$5 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $1,584 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $425 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $425 2h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $473 4h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $474 5h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $556 29h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $556 31h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $476 47h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $477 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $599 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $774 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $775 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $863 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $913 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $914 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,041 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,044 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $885 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $886 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $843 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $844 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $930 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $599.68 · official $599.68 (match) · 304 history records