Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe46e…4a20 other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$15
politics 27% −$9
sports 10% −$39
world 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 136 -3.5% -12.7% 7% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 2% -9.7%
10% -21.1% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.7% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)136 / 139
History coverage134d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $404 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $179 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $145 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $270 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $130 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $125 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $285 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $158 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $311 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $150 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $199 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $200 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $346 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $192 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $308 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 24 $187 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $177 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $382 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $172 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $201 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $188 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $154 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $170 $0 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 46h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 18d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $192 22d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $192 28d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 29d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 35d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 35d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $145 36d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $145 39d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $121 39d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $121 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $145 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $145 48d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $127 48d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $127 48d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $141 49d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $141 49d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $130 50d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $130 50d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $143 50d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $143 51d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $125 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.96 · official $69.96 (match) · 409 history records