Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E4 0xe46c…5d5f other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,242 (-1%) realized −$2,241 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%23W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,200per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$17
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$1,819
politics 37% −$70
sports 17% −$373
culture 3% −$6
world 1% +$8
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 90 -11.7% -20.2% 8% 3% -11.5%
all 131 -3.4% -12.6% 18% 11% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 11% -10.8%
10% -21.0% 10% -19.4%
15% -28.6% 8% -27.1%
20% -35.6% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,731) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$29 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized−$2,241
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses23 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage126d
Avg bet$1,200
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $667 $666 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,492 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,538 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $650 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,497 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,109 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $2,464 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,713 −$4 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 04 $536 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,595 −$4 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,642 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,223 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $4,818 −$5 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 01 $824 +$2 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $2,048 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,982 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,360 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,325 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,425 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,566 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,341 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,461 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,391 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,267 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $2,296 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1,427 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $422 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $423 2h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $481 5h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $482 7h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $563 30h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $563 31h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $352 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $352 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $649 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $650 6d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $306 6d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $361 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,343 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,257 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,259 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,275 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,277 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,254 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,256 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,239 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,276 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,278 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,082 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,084 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $666.37 · official $666.37 (match) · 422 history records