Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe46b…0f3b politics 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,853 (+1%) realized +$1,852 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,334per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$26
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$67
other 41% +$2,065
world 5% −$35
sports 5% −$129
economics 3% −$4
culture 2% −$4
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -1.8% -11.2% 8% 4% -8.2%
all 92 -1.8% -11.2% 8% 4% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -8.2%
10% -19.7% 4% -17.0%
15% -27.4% 4% -25.0%
20% -34.6% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,647) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$310 vs −$4 · ×74.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.32 per $1 lost it wins $6.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$598
Realized+$1,852
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage86d
Avg bet$1,334
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $597 $598 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2,059 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $267 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $285 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $2,656 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,974 −$5 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $956 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $2,486 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,231 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $774 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,968 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,993 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,977 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3,935 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $279 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $461 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $381 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,974 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,837 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $611 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $3,013 −$4 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $31 +$29 +93%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $1,396 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $1,670 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 14 $1,672 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $3,212 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $1,692 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $3,016 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $295 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $295 6h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $223 10h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $224 13h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $267 27h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $267 30h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $284 32h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $285 36h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $597 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $745 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $746 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $885 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $886 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $752 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $753 10d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $954 10d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $956 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $810 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $810 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $882 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $884 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $773 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $774 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $917 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $918 13d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $876 14d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $877 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $937 18d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $938 18d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $916 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $597.97 · official $597.97 (match) · 279 history records