Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:14:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E4 0xe469…cc95 crypto 349 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+1%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate97%338W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$25
14 days+$43
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 +0.9% -8.7% 97% 7% -9.1%
≤30d 349 +0.6% -8.9% 97% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 349 +0.6% -8.9% 97% 8% -9.1%
all 349 +0.6% -8.9% 97% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 8% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses338 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)349 / 349
History coverage23d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 349 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $115 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $113 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $112 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $108 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $106 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $98 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $97 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$5 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $29 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $115 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $109 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $108 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $107 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $106 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $105 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $104 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $97 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $61 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $84 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 710 history records