Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe468…9f4c crypto 1161 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$51 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate91%1055W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$96
14 days−$100
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$21
other 10% −$8
politics 7% −$11
sports 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -86.5% -87.8% 3% 3% -75.2%
≤30d 59 -60.7% -64.4% 24% 2% -53.1%
≤90d 1160 -2.1% -11.5% 91% 12% -9.8%
all 1160 -2.1% -11.5% 91% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 12% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 5% -18.4%
15% -27.7% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1055 / 105
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1160 / 1161
History coverage82d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? No 76¢ 76¢ $304 $306 +$2 (+1%)
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $98 $94 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima Jun 27 $31 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +57%
BNB Up or Down - May 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 25¢ $57 1h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 24¢ $44 1h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY No 76¢ $304 1h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary SELL Yes 24¢ $0 15h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary SELL No 75¢ $297 15h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary SELL Yes 25¢ $53 16h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY No 76¢ $304 19h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 23¢ $12 20h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 23¢ $38 20h
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 7¢ $2 43h
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 6¢ $20 2d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 8¢ $9 3d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 8¢ $16 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 80¢ $40 7d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 77¢ $38 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.95 · official $399.95 (match) · 2506 history records