Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe468…de6d
politics · 213 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$29 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses22 / 190
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)212 / 213
History coverage150d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 212 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$8
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $22 $0 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $19 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $11 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $80 −$1 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $19 $0 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 07 $23 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $25 $0 -2%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $20 $0 -2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $39 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $15 $0 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $80 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $200 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $80 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 29% −$8
other 24% −$8
sports 20% −$5
crypto 10% −$2
culture 5% −$4
economics 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 3% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $19 16m
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $21 48m
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $21 6h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $14 7h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $14 15h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 15h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 19h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 20h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $15 20h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $16 26h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 98¢ $22 27h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 98¢ $22 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $20 37h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $10 38h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $10 44h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $20 45h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $21 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 2d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $16 2d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $16 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $11 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $11 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $21 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $21 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $12 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.6% -10.0% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 72 -0.6% -10.0% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 112 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 212 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.50 · official $18.50 (match) · 842 history records