Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe466…7be5 other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$13
other 15% −$2
economics 12% −$3
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 74 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage636d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Nov 24 $50 $0 -1%
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will RB Leipzig win the Bundesliga? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Supreme Court vacancy in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Elon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Alexandre de Moraes jail in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win the NFC North? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donnovan Clingan win NBA Rookie of the Year? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year? Dec 20 $0 $0 -5%
Will Evan Mobley lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Young Boys win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden fined over 500k in gun case? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Shedeur Sanders win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 14h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 3d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 24d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 30d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 31d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 41d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 42d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 46d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 47d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 51d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 51d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 55d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 55d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $50 70d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $50 71d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 75d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 76d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $50 79d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $7 80d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $43 80d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 81d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 82d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 93d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 96d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 96d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 102d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records