Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe465…46f1 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-11%) realized −$7 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$11
sports 13% −$8
crypto 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -21.1% -28.6% 50% 40% -31.3%
≤30d 10 -21.1% -28.6% 50% 40% -31.3%
≤90d 10 -21.1% -28.6% 50% 40% -31.3%
all 10 -21.1% -28.6% 50% 40% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.6% 40% -31.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 40% -37.9%
15% -41.7% 20% -43.9%
20% -47.4% 20% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +84%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $3 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $3 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $3 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $2 24h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.26 · official $40.27 (match) · 27 history records