Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe464…c85b other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+7%) realized +$67 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$24
crypto 9% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +16.7% +5.6% 78% 67% +0.2%
≤30d 9 +16.7% +5.6% 78% 67% +0.2%
≤90d 9 +16.7% +5.6% 78% 67% +0.2%
all 9 +16.7% +5.6% 78% 67% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 67% +0.2%
10% -4.5% 33% -9.4%
15% -13.7% 11% -18.1%
20% -22.2% 11% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$30 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 68¢ $114 $91 −$22 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $96 +$18 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $78 +$19 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $32 +$46 +145%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$20 -49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $76 −$39 -51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$12 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 +$8 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $114 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $96 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $97 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $78 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $16 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $16 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $20 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 42¢ $37 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $36 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $28 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $29 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.45 · official $90.10 · 29 history records